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Prediction for CME (2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-29T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31751/-1
CME Note: Very faint loop CME seen to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a bit elusive, but may possibly be the liftoff of some filamentary material from one of the many filaments currently on the Earth-facing disk. Based on a stereoscopic measurement (with Lat:-17 and Lon:36), this may possibly be the liftoff of some material from a filament visible in SDO AIA 304 imagery which spanned from S40W10 to S25W60 at the start time of this CME. This CME overlaps with CME:2024-06-29T03:36Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T23:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-03T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/31783/1
Model Inputs:
2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=64.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=885.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T07:26Z
2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=36.0, Lat.=-27.0, Speed=506.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-06-29T10:42Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-03T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-03T03:41Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-02T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 77.47 hour(s)
Difference: -6.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-29T18:13Z

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